Long / Short

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Long — most benefited

• AI infra: labs, semis, data centers, power (they capture the $1.7T)
• Gold and miners
• Long Treasuries (first 12-18 months)
• Discount retail, auto parts (the 2008 playbook)
• Bankruptcy services, debt collection

Short — most destroyed

• Per-seat SaaS: Salesforce, Workday, ADP. Headcount is their billing unit
• Metro residential, office CRE, regional banks
• Higher ed: $200K degrees for jobs that no longer exist
• Consumer credit: cards, auto loans, student loans
• Staffing, recruiting, and offshore IT services
• Muni bonds of white collar metros (NYC, SF, Boston)